Chamath @ 01:02:50Inconclusive
climate
The world will not achieve global net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 (or even by 2060); existing and foreseeable plans are insufficient to reach net zero within that timeframe.
By the way, guys, I just want to take the, you know, rip the band aid off. Net zero by 2050. 26. It is not possible. There is zero credible plans that the world has to do it.View on YouTube
Explanation
As of November 30, 2025, it is not yet possible to definitively judge a prediction about whether the world will fail to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 or 2060, because those target years are still in the future.
What we can say:
- Many major economies and companies have adopted net‑zero targets for around mid‑century, e.g. the EU, US, UK, Japan and others have 2050 net‑zero commitments, and China has announced a 2060 carbon‑neutrality goal. These targets are typically enshrined in policy documents or national plans, but assessments by groups like the UN and the International Energy Agency consistently conclude that current policies and implemented measures are insufficient to be on a firm pathway to global net‑zero by 2050.
- However, the prediction is about the outcome (whether global net‑zero will actually be reached) and asserts that it is “not possible” and that there are “zero credible plans” to do so. Whether the world ultimately hits or misses net‑zero by 2050/2060 depends on technological progress, policy changes, and global coordination over the next 25–35 years—none of which can be definitively resolved today.
Given that:
- The relevant dates (2050, 2060) have not arrived,
- There remains substantial uncertainty about future policy, technology, and behavior,
the only reasonable classification today is inconclusive (too early). The prediction has not yet been clearly shown to be right or wrong.