Multiple $20B+ M&A deals across different industries have successfully closed since December 2023, contradicting Chamath’s claim that investors could no longer “underwrite” such outcomes.

Key counterexamples:

1. Cisco–Splunk ($28B, tech/security)
   Cisco’s all‑cash acquisition of Splunk, announced in September 2023, closed in March 2024 and is described as the largest deal in Cisco’s history. EU antitrust regulators granted unconditional approval, and the transaction was completed without being blocked. (en.wikipedia.org)

2. ExxonMobil–Pioneer Natural Resources (~$64.5B enterprise value, energy)
   ExxonMobil’s acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources, valued at about $59.5B in equity and ~$64.5B including debt, closed on May 3, 2024. Exxon’s own SEC filings and deal documentation confirm completion of the merger on that date. (marketscreener.com)

3. Chevron–Hess ($53–55B, energy)
   Chevron’s acquisition of Hess, originally agreed in October 2023, faced both U.S. regulatory conditions and a major arbitration fight with Exxon over Hess’s Guyana stake. Nonetheless, Chevron finalized the roughly $53–55B acquisition on July 18, 2025. (investopedia.com)

In addition, 2024 saw a rebound in very large deals, with investment banks counting dozens of transactions over $10B, including Mars’ ~$36B acquisition of Kellanova and the $35B Capital One–Discover deal among announced megadeals, indicating that the market still supports very large M&A despite heightened scrutiny. (reuters.com)

Because several $20B+ deals were successfully completed in major, heavily regulated sectors (technology and U.S. energy) within roughly 1–18 months after the prediction, it is not accurate that such deals belong to “a different era” or cannot realistically be underwritten anymore. The prediction that acquirers and investors should not expect to complete $20B‑scale deals “in any industry” has therefore been proven wrong.