ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Chamath
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Chamath @ 00:10:20Inconclusive
marketseconomy
By December 31, 2025, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield will exceed 5.0%, and the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield will exceed 6.25% (and may reach up to ~6.5%) if current escalation trends since Liberation Day persist.
Today, the ten year is around 4.5% at the rate in which it's escalating since Liberation Day. By the end of this year, we're going to be past 5%. The 30 year is on a rate now to get past six and a quarter, maybe even reach 6.5%.View on YouTube
Explanation

The prediction deadline is December 31, 2025. Today is November 30, 2025, so there is still one month left for the 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields to potentially reach or exceed the levels Chamath specified (10-year > 5.0%, 30-year > 6.25%).

As of late November 2025, publicly reported market data shows:

  • The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is below 5%.
  • The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield is below 6.25%.

These current levels mean the prediction has not yet come true, but because the target date has not passed, it could still become correct (or definitively wrong) by year‑end. Therefore, the only appropriate evaluation at this time is “inconclusive (too early)”.

Note: Once data for yields on or after December 31, 2025 is available, the prediction can be definitively scored as right or wrong based on whether those thresholds were ever exceeded by that date.