Available market data show that equity volatility did not stay unusually high for a prolonged period (≥1 year) after September 2022, and in fact normalized faster than many late‑2022 outlooks anticipated.

Key evidence:

1. Volatility levels fell sharply in 2023 vs. 2022

   • The average level of the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) in 2022 was 25.64, about 30% above its long‑term average and the sixth‑highest yearly average ever, reflecting persistently elevated implied volatility that year. (gia.com)
   • In 2023, VIX behavior changed dramatically: it averaged 16.85, with implied volatility “drifting lower” over the year. Realized volatility of the S&P 500 was 13.10% in 2023. (gia.com)
   • S&P Dow Jones Indices similarly notes that by late 2023 the S&P 500’s annualized daily volatility was a “relatively low” 13.6%, and that trailing one‑year volatility had decreased across all 11 sectors between mid‑2023 and late‑2023. (indexologyblog.com)
     These levels are near or below long‑run norms and are not consistent with a regime of sustained, unusually high, choppy volatility for another full year.

2. Price action was a strong, sustained rally, not a long choppy sideways market

   • After the 2022 bear market (S&P 500 total return ‑18.11%), the index delivered +26.29% in 2023 and +25.02% in 2024, producing the best two‑year gain of the 21st century. (slickcharts.com)
   • This pattern—large, mostly trending gains with only brief volatility spikes (e.g., the regional banking stress in March 2023)—is not what investors typically describe as markets remaining “highly volatile and choppy” for an extended period.

3. Consensus expectations in late 2022 actually leaned toward continued volatility, which did not fully materialize
   Several major houses in late 2022 expected elevated volatility into 2023:

   • JPMorgan projected that market volatility would “remain elevated (VIX averaging ~25)” with another equity drawdown and a likely retest of 2022 lows in 1H23. (tker.co)
   • Rothschild & Co’s survey of broker forecasts notes that at end‑2022, brokers projected flat U.S. equity returns for 2023, with volatility expected to remain elevated and some predicting a retest of the 2022 lows. (rothschildandco.com)
   • Northern Trust’s 2023 outlook similarly described 2023 as a “turbulent” and volatile year, even while expecting some tempering later on. (businesswire.com)

   In reality, VIX did not average around 25 in 2023; it averaged ~16.9, well below both 2022 levels and the long‑term mean. (gia.com) Volatility subsided sooner, not “for much longer,” than many of these contemporaneous expectations.

Given (a) the clear drop in both implied and realized volatility by 2023, (b) the strong, relatively smooth upward trend in major equity indices starting in late 2022, and (c) the fact that consensus late‑2022 forecasts already anticipated more persistent volatility than actually occurred, Chamath’s claim that the choppy, high‑vol regime would persist for “much longer than people think” (on the order of at least another year) does not match subsequent market behavior. Hence the prediction is wrong.