Chamath predicted in September 2022 that the Russia–Ukraine war would not end quickly but "drag on for a really long time." That implied many more months and likely years of continued conflict rather than a rapid Russian collapse or a near‑term negotiated settlement.

As of November 30, 2025:

• The large‑scale Russo‑Ukrainian war that began on 24 February 2022 is still formally characterized as ongoing (“2022–present”) by major reference sources, with active combat and no peace treaty or stable ceasefire in place.【(en.wikipedia.org)
• Russia continues to occupy roughly one‑fifth of Ukraine’s territory, with estimates around 18–20% of the country under Russian control as of 2025.【(en.wikipedia.org)
• Major named operations and offensives in 2024–2025 (e.g., the Pokrovsk offensive, Novopavlivka offensive, Kupiansk offensive, and Huliaipole offensive) are explicitly described as ongoing, underscoring that large‑scale fighting is still happening more than three years after the full‑scale invasion began.【(en.wikipedia.org)
• Recent reporting in late November 2025 describes large Russian drone and missile barrages on Kyiv and other cities, with continuing casualties and infrastructure damage, again confirming that the war has not been resolved by a settlement or decisive collapse.【(reuters.com)
• Analyses marking the war’s third year describe it as a prolonged war of attrition that has "settled" into long‑term grinding conflict after the 2023 counteroffensive, not as a short, concluded campaign.【(kyivindependent.com)

Because the war has continued for years after September 2022, with no quick negotiated peace and no sudden, war‑ending collapse of Russian forces, Chamath’s broad directional prediction—that the conflict would drag on for a long time—has been borne out by events.