ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Chamath
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Chamath @ 01:32:43Right
politicsgovernment
As a result of the Colorado Supreme Court decision removing Trump from the 2024 primary ballot, Donald Trump will go on to win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination and will become the strong favorite to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
But now I think that they've basically made his winning the Republican nomination a foregone conclusion. And he is the overwhelming favorite to win the presidency after this.View on YouTube
Explanation

The prediction has two falsifiable components:

  1. Trump would win the 2024 Republican nomination.
    – Trump dominated the 2024 Republican primaries, securing well over the required 1,215 delegates and clinching the nomination on March 12, 2024, according to AP/Forbes and primary tallies. (forbes.com)
    – He was then formally nominated as the GOP presidential candidate at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee on July 15–18, 2024. (en.wikipedia.org)
    This clearly fulfills the “foregone conclusion” part about winning the Republican nomination.

  2. He would become the strong/overwhelming favorite to win—and in fact win—the presidency.
    – In the 2024 general election, Trump was the Republican nominee and defeated Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, winning 312 electoral votes to 226 and a national popular-vote plurality. (en.wikipedia.org)
    – Betting markets and bookmakers did, at various points close to and on Election Day, treat Trump as the favorite and at times an overwhelming favorite: for example, on Nov. 4, 2024, BetMGM odds implied roughly a 58% chance of a Trump win, and as votes came in late on election night his odds moved to around a 92% implied probability (described explicitly as an “overwhelming favorite to win the presidential election”). (actionnetwork.com)
    – Crypto prediction markets such as Polymarket also had periods where Trump was the dominant favorite (e.g., reaching ~72% at one point before Harris later surged), indicating that for substantial stretches he was treated as the likeliest winner by market participants. (investing.com)

The “overwhelming favorite” language is somewhat subjective and did not hold continuously (Harris was favored at some points), but there is clear evidence that: (a) Trump did become the market favorite with large implied winning probabilities, and (b) he ultimately did win the presidency. Given that both concrete outcomes Chamath tied to the Colorado decision—Trump securing the GOP nomination and emerging as the strong favorite who goes on to win—did occur, the prediction is best classified as right.