The prediction is framed over “the coming venture cycles” and “the next several years,” and VC fund cycles are typically 10–12 years long with 3–5‑year investing periods, so less than two years of data (Dec 2023 → Nov 2025) is not enough to see whether typical fund sizes structurally shrink by 3–4x back to 1990s levels. (en.wikipedia.org)

Early quantitative evidence actually cuts against the prediction in the short run: Carta data show that the average venture fund size increased by about 44% in 2024 vs. 2023, not shrank, indicating more capital concentration in larger funds rather than a broad move toward much smaller funds. (carta.com) In parallel, LP capital has become more concentrated in a smaller number of established managers, with a 2024 total of $76.1B raised across 508 funds and the top 30 funds capturing about 75% of that volume—again suggesting larger, more concentrated vehicles, not a generalized shift to $50–$200M funds. (forbes.com)

There are some countervailing datapoints—e.g., certain debut and first‑time funds are relatively modest (average first‑time fund size around $41M in 2024, and examples like America’s Frontier Fund reducing its target from $500M to $315M), which is directionally consistent with smaller vehicles for newer managers. (businessinsider.com) But these are pockets within an overall market that, so far, shows increased average fund size and strong capital concentration, especially around AI mega‑rounds and large platforms. (barrons.com)

Given (a) the explicitly multi‑year, multi‑cycle horizon of the claim, and (b) the fact that current data neither reflect a 3–4x shrink in typical fund sizes nor provide enough time for such a structural shift to play out, the correct status today is inconclusive (too early to tell) rather than clearly right or wrong.