Chamath’s condition for a durable bottom in global risk assets had two parts: (1) roughly $30T needed to be wiped out or clearly on track to be wiped out from global markets, and also (2) there had to be an off‑ramp / resolution to the Russia–Ukraine war restoring predictable energy and food supplies before markets would truly bottom.

On the first point, global stocks and bonds did lose more than $30 trillion in 2022. Multiple summaries of 2022 market performance, drawing on Financial Times/Bloomberg data, report that world equity market capitalization fell about $25T and global bonds roughly $9–10T, for total losses exceeding $30T.(thenews.com.pk) So his order‑of‑magnitude drawdown threshold was essentially met.

However, the second condition clearly did not occur. The Russo‑Ukrainian war is still described as an ongoing conflict (“2022–present”), with active offensive operations such as the Pokrovsk offensive starting in 2024 and continuing into 2025, and only tentative peace frameworks being discussed. There has been no conclusive peace agreement or stable political “off‑ramp” that resolves the war.(en.wikipedia.org)

Despite the absence of that off‑ramp, both U.S. and global equity markets appear to have established a durable bottom in October 2022:

• The S&P 500’s bear‑market closing low was 3,577.03 on October 12, 2022; by June 8, 2023 it had risen more than 20% off that low, meeting the standard definition of a new bull market and end of the 2022 bear cycle.(en.wikipedia.org) The index then posted strong positive total returns in 2023 and 2024 and went on to set multiple record highs, surpassing 6,800 by late October 2025.(en.wikipedia.org)
• Global equities behaved similarly. The MSCI All‑Country World Index (ACWI) and related global benchmarks reached new all‑time highs in 2024 and again in 2025, with commentary explicitly noting that global stocks had fully recovered from the 2022 decline and moved to record levels.(reuters.com)

In other words, global risk asset markets did form a durable bottom in late 2022 and went on to make new highs over the next several years even though the Russia–Ukraine war remained unresolved and continued to disrupt geopolitics. That directly contradicts the prediction that markets would not establish a durable bottom until both the ~$30T drawdown and a clear off‑ramp to the war were in place. For that reason, the prediction is best classified as wrong.