Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Chamath
economy
India’s real GDP growth rate will average roughly 7% per year for the coming years (implied medium-term trajectory rather than a one-off spike).
India GDP is going to be 7% a year. They're off to the races. They're on a rocket ship.View on YouTube
Explanation

Since Chamath’s September 2023 comment, India’s realized and widely expected real GDP growth has indeed clustered around a ~7% medium‑term path. Official data and multilateral estimates show real GDP growth of about 8.2% in FY2023/24, well above 7%. (imf.org) Government and IMF estimates for FY2024/25 put growth in the mid‑6s (around 6.4–6.5%), implying an average of roughly 7.3% over FY2023/24–FY2024/25, despite some cooling after the post‑COVID rebound. (economictimes.indiatimes.com) Looking forward, the IMF projects real growth of 6.6% in FY2025/26 and 6.2% in FY2026/27, while the World Bank, ADB, and RBI cluster around 7% for FY2024/25 and roughly 6.7–7.2% for FY2025/26, i.e., a band centered very close to 7%. (worldbank.org) Taken together—one year clearly above 7%, the next slightly below, and credible forecasts for the following few years mostly between 6.5% and just over 7%—the medium‑term trajectory from 2023 through the mid‑2020s averages out to about 7% annual real GDP growth. That matches the spirit of his prediction (“~7% a year” as an ongoing pace rather than a one‑off spike), so it is best classified as right, acknowledging normal year‑to‑year variation around that level.