By mid‑April 2022, the war had not moved toward a ceasefire or an end to active fighting. Instead, Russia launched the large-scale Battle of Donbas offensive on 18 April 2022, marking the start of the second strategic phase of the invasion and continuing intense combat through at least September 2022. (en.wikipedia.org) The siege of Mariupol likewise continued well past mid‑April, with major combat operations only ending in mid‑May and the city’s fall on 20 May 2022. (en.wikipedia.org) A proposed Easter ceasefire for 21–25 April 2022 never took effect because Russia refused the truce, so no temporary, let alone permanent, ceasefire was in place around that time. (en.wikipedia.org) Moreover, independent timelines and analyses note that large-scale hostilities continued through 2022 and beyond, with the full‑scale war still ongoing years later. (theweek.com) Given that there was neither a ceasefire nor an end to the active phase of the war in the near term after 19 March 2022, Chamath’s prediction that it was “really, really close to this being done” was incorrect.