At the time of the podcast (9 May 2025), the federal funds target range was 4.25–4.50%, where it had been held since the end of 2024 after cumulative 100 bps of cuts that brought it to that level.(federalreserve.gov) Chamath’s normalized prediction was that the Fed would not cut rates below this 4.25–4.50% range through at least the 2026 U.S. midterms. However, the Fed cut the target range to 4.00–4.25% at its September 2025 meeting and then further to 3.75–4.00% at the October 29, 2025 meeting, clearly moving below the 4.25–4.50% band.(tradingeconomics.com) Multiple summaries of current policy state that as of November 2025 the target range remains 3.75–4.00%.(sezarroverseas.com) Because the Fed did in fact cut below 4.25–4.50% well before the 2026 midterms, the prediction is already falsified.