It’s too early to know whether this 20‑year forecast is right or wrong.

What Chamath said

• Quote (Dec 4, 2020): “And we are about to go through over the next 20 years, $30 trillion of wealth transfer.”
• Normalized prediction: roughly 2020–2040, about $30T of intergenerational wealth transfer in the U.S.

What current research says

• A 2018 Cerulli Associates report projected about $68T in U.S. wealth transfer between 2018 and 2042.
• Later work (e.g., a much‑cited 2021 analysis by Cerulli/others) estimates on the order of $70–80T+ of U.S. wealth transfer between ~2020 and mid‑2040s, depending on exact date range and definitions (all inheritances vs. just Boomer wealth, etc.).

These estimates:

• Are projections spanning roughly similar but not identical periods (e.g., 2018–2042 or 2021–2045 rather than exactly 2020–2040).
• Use varying definitions (total U.S. household wealth vs. just Baby Boomer wealth; inter vivos gifts vs. bequests).
• Extend well beyond 2025, so they have not yet played out.

Why the prediction cannot be scored yet

• The forecast period (≈2020–2040) is only about 5 years in as of Nov 29, 2025.
• The ultimate amount depends heavily on future asset prices, mortality, tax policy, and behavior over the next 15 years.
• While many current projections are higher than $30T for similar periods, they are not realized facts and differ in scope, so we cannot definitively say his ~$30T figure will be too low or wrong for his exact 20‑year window.

Because:

• The forecasted period is far from complete, and
• Existing numbers are themselves forward‑looking estimates, not outcomes,

the correct classification today is “inconclusive (too early)”, not yet clearly right or wrong.