1. Stock performance vs. Microsoft and Alphabet

• On Feb 11, 2022 (the last trading day before the Feb 12 podcast), Apple closed at about $165.55, Microsoft at $286.01, and Alphabet (GOOGL Class A) at $133.36. (statmuse.com)
• As of late Nov 2025, prices are roughly AAPL $278.85, MSFT $492.01, GOOGL $320.18.
• Approximate price returns from Feb 11, 2022 to now:
  • Apple: (278.85 / 165.55 − 1) ≈ +68%
  • Microsoft: (492.01 / 286.01 − 1) ≈ +72%
  • Alphabet: (320.18 / 133.36 − 1) ≈ +140%
    So Apple has slightly underperformed Microsoft and significantly underperformed Alphabet over this multi‑year period.
• A long‑MSFT/short‑AAPL pair would have earned a small positive spread (~+2%), while long‑GOOGL/short‑AAPL would have been strongly profitable (~+43%). This matches the idea that Apple belonged in a short basket versus those peers.

2. Business fundamentals vs. Microsoft and Alphabet

• Apple: Revenue rose from $394.3B (FY 2022) to $383.3B (2023, −2.8%), $391.0B (2024, +2.0%), and about $416.2B (2025, +6.4%), implying low single‑digit growth on average since 2022. (stockanalysis.com)
• Microsoft: Revenue grew from $198.3B (FY 2022) to $211.9B (2023, +6.9%), $245.1B (2024, +15.7%), and $281.7B (2025, +14.9%), with trailing‑twelve‑month growth around 15–16%. (stockanalysis.com)
• Alphabet: Revenue increased from $282.8B (2022) to $307.4B (2023, +8.7%) and $350.0B (2024, +13.9%), with trailing‑twelve‑month revenue ~$385.5B, up 13.4% YoY. (stockanalysis.com)
• On growth metrics, Apple’s core business has clearly lagged both Microsoft and Alphabet since early 2022, consistent with "business underperformance" relative to those peers.

3. Role of competitive and regulatory App Store pressures

• Regulatory pressure on Apple’s app ecosystem did intensify:
  • The EU’s Digital Markets Act (DMA) forced Apple to open up iOS to alternative app distribution and payment options in 2024–25. (apple.com)
  • Apple acknowledged the EU is only about 7% of global App Store revenue, and JPMorgan and other analysts initially expected limited near‑term revenue impact under Apple’s chosen fee structure. (techcrunch.com)
  • Follow‑up analyses found no meaningful decline in EU App Store revenue after DMA rules took effect; in fact, EU App Store revenue in March and April 2024 was up double‑digits vs. pre‑DMA levels. (macdailynews.com)
  • In 2024 the U.S. DOJ also brought a major antitrust case (United States v. Apple) explicitly targeting Apple’s control over iPhone app distribution and related practices. (en.wikipedia.org)
• At the same time, Apple’s Services segment (including the App Store) has been a major bright spot, approaching or exceeding $100B in annual revenue with low‑teens growth and very high margins, and is forecast to keep expanding its share of total profits. (techcrunch.com)
• So while regulatory and competitive pressures clearly mounted, evidence so far suggests they have not yet materially damaged App Store/Services economics; Apple’s slower overall growth relative to Microsoft and Alphabet appears driven more by saturation in hardware and the outsized boost those peers got from cloud and AI.

4. Overall assessment

• Outcome: From early 2022 through late 2025, Apple’s stock and business growth both underperformed Microsoft and Alphabet, and a short‑AAPL vs long‑MSFT/GOOGL basket would have worked, especially vs Alphabet.
• Attribution: The specific mechanism (App Store regulatory pressure seriously crimping the business) has not clearly materialized yet; App Store/Services revenue remains strong and relatively resilient to the DMA so far.

Given that the core prediction was about relative underperformance and the trade implication (Apple as a short vs MSFT/GOOGL), which did play out, this forecast is best scored as "right" overall, with the caveat that the stated regulatory cause has only partially, not decisively, driven that underperformance.