Chamath’s “big tech spread trade” was explicitly defined as long Microsoft and Google, short other big‑tech names like Apple, Amazon, Facebook/Meta, and Netflix, first outlined in episode 54 and reiterated in episode 67 as now potentially moving from a trade to a long‑term “investment” with Microsoft and Google as the clear winners and Facebook/Meta and Netflix among the losers.(allinpodcastsummary.com) In February 2022 (around the time of episode 67), the closing prices were roughly: MSFT $286.01, GOOGL $133.36, AAPL $165.39, AMZN $153.29, META $218.20, NFLX $39.13.(statmuse.com) By late November 2025, these had risen to about: MSFT $492.01, GOOGL $320.18, AAPL $278.85, AMZN $233.22, META $647.95, NFLX $107.58. That implies total returns since Feb 11, 2022 of roughly +72% (MSFT) and +140% (GOOGL) on the long side versus +69% (AAPL), +52% (AMZN), +197% (META), and +175% (NFLX) on the short side. Using 1 share of each, the long leg makes about +$393, while the short leg loses about −$692, for a net loss of roughly −$299—the disfavored names, especially Meta and Netflix, have dramatically outperformed the supposed winners. This is consistent with broader market data showing Meta as one of the very best‑performing S&P 500 stocks in 2023 (second only to Nvidia) after a huge earnings recovery, rather than remaining a weak “funding short” for years.(gsix.org) Nearly four years after the February 2022 remark—well into his implied 3–5‑year “several years” window—the trade has not produced sustained outperformance of the favored names over the disfavored ones; instead, the short basket has strongly outperformed, making the hypothesized multi‑year, investable spread trend incorrect so far.