Summary
Chamath predicted in December 2020 that:

1. "We are all going to need a vaccine" — i.e., broad population in developed countries would need/receive COVID‑19 vaccination.
2. These vaccines would come from for‑profit companies that thrived on top of R&D funded by prior drug profits (i.e., the standard big‑pharma model, not purely state labs or non‑profits).

By late 2025, both parts are substantially correct.

1. Did the broad population end up needing and receiving vaccines?

• In the United States, COVID‑19 vaccines became widely recommended for essentially the entire adult population and later for children. CDC data show that by mid‑2022, about 79% of the total U.S. population had received at least one dose, and over 90% of adults had received at least one dose.
• In the EU and other high‑income countries, vaccination rates were similarly high; for example, the EU reported over 70% of adults fully vaccinated by late 2021, with even higher one‑dose coverage.
• Major public‑health bodies (CDC, WHO, EMA, etc.) recommended primary series and boosters broadly, not just for a tiny at‑risk subset, confirming that vaccination was considered needed at a population level in developed countries.

While not literally every single person was vaccinated, in context the prediction was about broad population‑level need and uptake. That did happen.

2. Were the vaccines from for‑profit pharma companies funded by prior profits‑driven R&D?

The first and dominant vaccines in the U.S. and most of Europe were:

• Pfizer‑BioNTech (Comirnaty) – Pfizer is a large for‑profit pharmaceutical company with extensive R&D funded historically by its drug revenues (e.g., Lipitor and many others). BioNTech is also a for‑profit biotech firm.
• Moderna (Spikevax) – a for‑profit biotech company, already heavily funded by equity, partnerships, and prior revenue/pipeline value, investing heavily in mRNA R&D before COVID‑19.
• Johnson & Johnson (Janssen) – J&J is a large for‑profit pharma/medical products company with long‑standing R&D funded largely by profits from its product portfolio.
• AstraZeneca‑Oxford – AstraZeneca is another major for‑profit pharma company relying on profitable drugs and R&D investment.

These firms did receive substantial public funding and advance‑purchase guarantees (e.g., Operation Warp Speed in the U.S., EU and U.K. procurement deals), but that does not contradict Chamath’s claim. His point was about who the producers are and their business model. The leading vaccines were indeed:

• Developed and manufactured by large for‑profit pharma/biotech companies.
• Building on pre‑existing R&D infrastructure and platforms, which in turn were funded over years by prior drug revenues and private capital.

While there were also vaccines from state‑linked or non‑profit actors (e.g., Russia’s Sputnik V, China’s Sinovac/Sinopharm, some public‑lab efforts), these did not dominate vaccination campaigns in the U.S. and Western Europe and do not negate the general statement about developed‑world vaccination.

Conclusion

• The broad population in developed countries did end up needing and receiving COVID‑19 vaccines.
• These vaccines were overwhelmingly produced by large, for‑profit pharmaceutical and biotech firms with R&D capabilities built on years of investment funded largely by prior commercial success.

Therefore, the prediction is right in substance, even if not every single individual was vaccinated and even though governments contributed significant emergency funding alongside those existing profit‑driven R&D engines.