It’s too early to decisively judge this prediction.

1. Timeframe hasn’t elapsed
Chamath’s claim was about “the next 20 or 30 years” from ~2020. As of today (late 2025), only about 5 years have passed, so we cannot yet know whether Google will, over that whole period, be under “layers and layers of oversight” analogous to nuclear regulation.

2. Evidence of growing oversight (in direction of his claim)

• The EU AI Act (in force since August 1, 2024) creates a comprehensive AI regulatory framework, including governance bodies (European AI Office, national supervisory authorities) and obligations for general‑purpose and “systemic risk” AI models, which will come fully into effect over 2025–2027. These rules clearly apply to major providers like Google/DeepMind. (digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu)
• Analysis of the AI Act notes that general‑purpose AI models with systemic risk (a category that would include Google’s largest models) face extra requirements: model evaluation, risk mitigation, incident reporting, and cybersecurity—on top of baseline transparency and documentation. (crfm.stanford.edu)
• Google has stated it will sign the EU’s code of practice for general‑purpose AI, designed to operationalize compliance with the AI Act—another layer of formal oversight. (techcrunch.com)
• In the U.S., Google is one of the companies that entered into voluntary AI safety commitments with the Biden administration, covering pre‑deployment testing, security, transparency, and risk research—an early, softer form of regulatory oversight. (bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov)
• UK and international scrutiny of Google DeepMind’s frontier models (e.g., Gemini) and alleged breaches of safety pledges has intensified political pressure for mandatory regulation and stronger oversight regimes. (time.com)

3. But not yet “nuclear‑style” multi‑layer oversight focused on Google/DeepMind
Despite these developments, current oversight is:

• Still emerging and fragmented (EU, U.S., U.K., etc. each moving at different speeds),
• Largely sector‑wide (applies to many AI providers and platforms) rather than uniquely centered on Google, and
• Not yet as entrenched, stringent, and specialized as the nuclear regulatory regimes Chamath invoked by analogy.

So far, events are partially consistent with his direction of travel (growing, multi‑layer AI oversight that affects Google), but we lack the full 20–30‑year perspective, and today’s institutions are not yet clearly comparable to nuclear oversight in scope and rigidity. Therefore the prediction cannot be fairly scored as right or wrong yet, making the appropriate label “inconclusive (too early)”.