Chamath was reacting to a sharp run‑up in traditional energy stocks in late 2021 and early 2022 and argued that this was a trade, not a durable multi‑year investment trend.

What happened since the Feb 12, 2022 episode (using Feb 11, 2022 market data as proxy):

• The S&P 500 Energy index had an exceptional 2022, returning about +65.7% while the overall S&P 500 returned –18.1%, making energy by far the best‑performing sector that year.【10search1】【10search2】
• However, the outperformance faded. In 2023, energy was the worst S&P 500 sector, returning about –4.8% while the S&P 500 gained over 20%+.【13view0】【1search5】 In 2024, energy eked out roughly +1.9% versus about +23.3% for the S&P 500.【1search1】【1search3】
• From Feb 11, 2022 to late Nov 2025, the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) rose from a close of $70.50 to about $90–92 (~+28–30%), while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) rose from $440.46 to about $680+ (~+55%), meaning an investor who bought at the time of Chamath’s comment would have significantly underperformed the broad market in price terms; XLE’s higher dividend yield narrows but does not eliminate this gap.【2search2】【9view0】【0finance0】【0finance1】
• Sector commentaries note that although energy strongly outperformed from mid‑2021 through early 2024 (roughly 70 percentage points ahead of the S&P 500 over that span), this largely reflects a rebound and a geopolitically driven spike rather than a new secular leadership regime.【12view0】 Longer‑term studies still show energy as one of the weakest sectors from 2010–2022 on average returns, despite the 2022 boom.【10search6】
• Recent analyses emphasize that fossil‑fuel stocks have underperformed the S&P 500 in 7 of the last 10 years, and that the 2022 surge appears “transient” rather than the start of a dominant decade‑long bull market.【1search0】

Why the verdict is inconclusive:

• Chamath’s normalized prediction explicitly referenced a 5–10 year horizon for energy’s relative performance. Measuring from early 2022, that window runs roughly through 2027–2032. As of late 2025, we are only about 3.8 years in, so the full 5–10 year outcome is unknown.
• On one hand, subsequent data are directionally supportive of his skepticism: buying energy at the early‑2022 spike has so far lagged a simple S&P 500 index investment, and the sector’s 2022 strength has not turned into sustained leadership in 2023–2025.
• On the other hand, because a large part of the energy outperformance occurred from 2021–2022 and because future returns (2026 onward) could still materially change the 5–10 year picture, we cannot definitively say yet whether energy will or will not “significantly outperform” over that full horizon.

Given that the core claim is about a 5–10 year relative-return outcome and that horizon has not elapsed, the fairest assessment today is that the prediction is too early to call, i.e., inconclusive, even though interim evidence so far leans in favor of his caution about treating the 2022 spike as a long‑term investment thesis.