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Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Chamath
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Chamath @ 00:52:24Right
marketseconomy
For upcoming U.S. 10‑year Treasury auctions over the near term following the tariff announcement in 2025, the clearing yield will be around 4%, providing materially lower financing costs than if the 10‑year had risen toward 5%.
Governments will now... know that ten years and the auctions will clear at around 4%.View on YouTube
Explanation

Available data on U.S. 10‑year Treasury auctions after the April 2, 2025 “Liberation Day” tariff announcement show that new 10‑year notes consistently cleared in the low‑to‑mid‑4% range, not near 5%.

  • The Liberation Day tariff package on April 2, 2025 materially shook markets and pushed 10‑year yields from roughly 4.2% to over 4.5% in the days immediately afterward, raising fears that long‑term rates could move much higher. (jpmorgan.com)

  • A consolidated calendar of 10‑year note auctions for 2025 shows the actual award yields for the auctions immediately following the tariffs and the podcast (which aired April 5, 2025):

    • Apr 9, 2025: 4.435%
    • May 6, 2025: 4.342%
    • Jun 11, 2025: 4.421%
    • Jul 9, 2025: 4.362%
    • Aug 6, 2025: 4.255%
    • Sep 10, 2025: 4.033%
    • Oct 8, 2025: 4.117%
    • Nov 12, 2025: 4.074%

    All of these are between about 4.0% and 4.44%, and none are close to 5%. (moneycontrol.com)

  • Independent news reports on specific auctions confirm these levels: Reuters reports the April 9 auction clearing at 4.435%; CNBC and Bloomberg cite 4.342% for the May 6 auction; Barron’s notes 4.421% for the June auction and 4.362% for the July 9 auction, all reinforcing that issuance was consistently in the low‑4s. (reuters.com)

  • Even when market yields “soared” later in 2025, commentary described the 10‑year yield reaching roughly 4.6%, still well below 5% and consistent with auction outcomes staying in the 4‑something range. (investopedia.com)

Chamath’s normalized prediction was that, in the near term following the tariff announcement, 10‑year Treasury auctions would clear at around 4% rather than drifting up toward 5%, giving governments materially lower funding costs. The realized auction yields over the subsequent months were solidly in the low‑4% band and never approached 5%, delivering meaningfully cheaper financing than a 5% handle would have implied.

Given this, the prediction that upcoming 10‑year auctions would clear “around 4%” and not near 5% is supported by the data, so it is best classified as right.