Chamath argued in November 2020 that the U.S. would not get back to more than roughly 80% of pre‑COVID social and economic normality until sometime in 2022 (maybe 2023), largely because scaling vaccine production and distribution would take that long.

However, multiple indicators show the U.S. was already above that ~80% threshold by mid– to late‑2021, well before 2022:

• Economic activity: Real U.S. GDP had already returned to and surpassed its pre‑pandemic level by Q2 2021, according to Brookings’ analysis of BEA data. (brookings.edu) Full‑year 2021 GDP growth was 5.7%, the fastest since the 1980s and a sharp rebound from 2020. (thenationalnews.com) While the labor market wasn’t perfectly restored, BLS data show unemployment averaging 4.2% in Q4 2021 (vs. 3.5% in late 2019) and employment still a few million jobs short—but clearly well past 80% of the way back. (bls.gov)

• Mobility and social behavior: Google Community Mobility–based analyses show retail and recreation mobility in the U.S. had returned to around baseline by April 2021, and transit‑station mobility was back near baseline by July 2021. Workplaces remained about 20% below baseline through early 2022, but with retail, recreation, grocery/pharmacy, and transit at or near 100%, the overall mix of social and economic activity was well above 80% of pre‑COVID norms by mid‑2021. (pcghealthpolicy.com) Air‑travel volumes tell a similar story: by summer 2021 TSA checkpoint counts were routinely around 2 million passengers per day, only ~20–25% below 2019 levels. (statista.com)

• Vaccination and lifting of restrictions: Vaccine rollout was far faster than implied in the prediction. By August 2, 2021, 70% of U.S. adults had received at least one dose of a COVID‑19 vaccine, and about half the total population was fully vaccinated. (cnbc.com) On May 13, 2021, the CDC said fully vaccinated people could resume most indoor and outdoor activities without masks or distancing in non‑health‑care settings, essentially telling them they could return to pre‑pandemic behaviors except where local rules still applied. (hoganlovells.com) Many states lifted most business capacity limits and mask mandates during spring–summer 2021, enabling near‑normal social and commercial life in large parts of the country. (hr.dickinson-wright.com)

While some sectors (e.g., offices in big cities, some international travel, certain hospitality niches) and specific metrics lagged into 2022, the overall combination of GDP, employment, mobility, travel, and daily social activity in the U.S. had clearly surpassed an 80% recovery level months before 2022 began. That contradicts his timeline that such a level of normality would not be reached until 2022 or later.

Conclusion: Because the U.S. crossed a reasonable “80% of normal” threshold for both economic output and everyday social activity by mid– to late‑2021, Chamath’s prediction that this would not happen until 2022–2023 was wrong.