ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Chamath
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Chamath @ 00:20:28Inconclusive
politicsgovernment
At some point in the next few years after February 2, 2024, U.S. lawmakers will pass a narrow, bipartisan amendment to Section 230, likely attached to a larger omnibus or budget "Christmas tree" bill, that significantly curtails or effectively removes existing liability protections for major social media platforms.
I think what they're going to do, if I had to bet, is that they're going to write a very narrow amendment to that law and during some budget process or some other thing where you have a big Christmas tree bill, this will get in there, and I think it will have bipartisan support that effectively removes the liability protection that these companies have.View on YouTube
Explanation

As of November 30, 2025, the prediction has not yet come true, but the stated horizon is still “the next few years” after February 2, 2024, so it’s too early to declare it wrong.

Key facts:

  1. No enacted federal law has directly amended the text of Section 230 since FOSTA–SESTA (2018). The current Section 230 overview notes the new 2025 TAKE IT DOWN Act but explicitly says that law "does not directly alter Section 230," instead creating another category of illegal content outside its protection. Section 230’s core immunity provisions remain in place. (en.wikipedia.org)

  2. TAKE IT DOWN Act (2025) is narrow and bipartisan, but not the kind of Section 230 amendment Chamath described. It targets non‑consensual intimate imagery and deepfake porn, passed the Senate by unanimous consent and the House 409–2, and was signed into law on May 19, 2025. However, reporting emphasizes that it avoids contesting Section 230 directly, instead relying on FTC enforcement and specific takedown obligations for that content category. (en.wikipedia.org) It is not a Christmas‑tree/omnibus budget rider, and it does not broadly "remove" liability protections for major social platforms.

  3. Bills that would substantially curtail or sunset Section 230 are pending, not law. Examples include:

    • A bipartisan Durbin–Graham effort to sunset Section 230 in a few years, reintroduced in 2024–2025, which has not passed. (theverge.com)
    • The Algorithm Accountability Act (S.3193 in the 119th Congress), introduced November 18, 2025, to amend Section 230 and limit liability protection for certain large social media platforms; as of late November 2025 it is only at the “Introduced” stage. (congress.gov)

  4. Section 230 is still in force and broadly operative. The up‑to‑date Section 230 summary lists these recent debates and carveouts and confirms that, despite political pressure and multiple reform bills, the basic immunity for user‑generated content remains intact. (en.wikipedia.org)

Comparison to the prediction:

  • Chamath forecast a narrow, bipartisan amendment to Section 230 itself, likely as a rider on a larger omnibus/budget bill, that would “effectively remove the liability protection” for major platforms.
  • To date, we see narrow, bipartisan online‑safety laws (like TAKE IT DOWN) and introduced but not enacted Section 230 reform bills. None match the full pattern he described: actual passage of a Section 230 amendment, tucked into a Christmas‑tree/omnibus spending bill, that significantly or broadly strips platforms’ liability shield.

Because his timeframe is “the next few years” and we’re only about 1 year and 10 months past the prediction date, there is still room for such an amendment to be passed. Thus, the correct status as of now is “inconclusive (too early)”, not "right" or "wrong."