ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Chamath
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Chamath @ 00:59:48Right
markets
As of May 22, 2021, the then-current crypto pullback is an early-stage phase of a longer-term growth cycle for crypto, not the beginning of its decline; crypto markets will continue to develop and expand after this correction.
It's the beginning of the beginningView on YouTube
Explanation

On May 22, 2021, Chamath made this comment in the middle of a sharp crypto selloff: the total crypto market cap had just fallen from around $2.5T to roughly $1.56T, with Bitcoin near $37.5k after crashing from about $64k a month earlier. (amp.cnn.com)

Since then, markets went through a deep "crypto winter" in 2022, when total crypto market cap fell below $1T and ended 2022 around $829B—much lower than at the time of his prediction. (80.lv) However, that downturn did not mark a lasting secular decline:

  • By October 5, 2025, total crypto market cap reached a new all‑time high around $4.35T—well above both the pre‑crash peak and the May 2021 levels—and even after a correction in November 2025, it remains in the ~$3.1–3.2T range. (cryptorank.io)
  • Bitcoin rose from about $37.5k on May 22, 2021 to new highs above $120k in mid‑2025, and is still around the $90k level in late 2025—multiples of its price at the time of the prediction, despite large drawdowns along the way. (statmuse.com)

Beyond prices, the structure and adoption of crypto markets expanded substantially:

  • The U.S. SEC approved 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, including BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which became the most successful ETF launch in history and surpassed $50B AUM in 2024; spot BTC ETFs collectively held over 1.3M BTC by late 2025. (techcrunch.com)
  • In March 2025, the U.S. created a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a broader Digital Asset Stockpile, formalizing Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as national‑level reserve and strategic assets. (en.wikipedia.org)

Taken together, the market did exactly what his normalized prediction describes: the May 2021 pullback was followed by a severe but temporary downcycle, after which crypto entered a larger growth phase with new price highs, a much larger total market, and significantly deeper institutional and governmental integration. Over a 4.5‑year horizon, this supports the view that it was "the beginning of the beginning" of a longer‑term growth cycle rather than the start of terminal decline. Therefore, the prediction is best classified as right.