Chamath tied his forecast to the Fed removing roughly $3–5T of liquidity. The Fed’s own balance‑sheet data show total assets peaked around $8.9T at end‑March 2022 and had fallen only to about $6.7T by June 11 2025 and about $6.5T by November 2025, a reduction of roughly $2.2–2.4T since runoff began in June 2022, and QT is scheduled to end December 1 2025, so the envisaged $3–5T balance‑sheet shrinkage never occurred. (federalreserve.gov) Despite that, US equities did not lose trillions more in value from mid‑2022 onward. One widely cited series shows total US stock‑market capitalization around $50.8T at end‑2021 and $40.3T at end‑2022 during the bear market, but then above $60T by late 2024 and roughly $68–71T by October 2025, well above mid‑2022 levels rather than $3–5T lower. (exodnexrn.blob.core.windows.net) The S&P 500 closed around 3,900 in late June 2022, dipped to a low near 3,577 in October 2022, then went on to record highs above 6,800 by October 2025, implying a large net gain rather than an additional 20–30% downside from mid‑2022. (statmuse.com) Valuation and index data show that 2022 delivered a roughly 19% full‑year drop in the broad FT Wilshire 5000 and an initial valuation compression, but by 2025 US tech and growth stocks were trading at forward P/E multiples (for example, Nasdaq’s forward P/E near 29 in Q3 2025) above their 10‑year averages, not 20–30% below prior baselines. (wilshire.com) Because neither the projected 3–5T of Fed balance‑sheet runoff nor the sustained combination of at least that much equity‑market wealth destruction plus an extra 20–30% valuation decline from mid‑2022 actually materialized, the prediction is best judged as wrong.