Available evidence as of November 30, 2025 shows that McDonald’s is testing and selectively deploying automation and robotics, but has not shifted its franchise model to what Chamath described (corporate renting a full suite of robots to new franchisees so they can run with ~33–50% fewer workers).

Key points:

• McDonald’s has opened a highly automated test restaurant near Fort Worth, Texas, using conveyor belts, heavy reliance on app/kiosk ordering, and other automation. But reporting and employee accounts emphasize that it still has a kitchen staff and a team size comparable to a traditional store, meaning it is not running with half or a third of the workers, and it is framed as a concept/test site rather than the new standard for all franchises. (cbsnews.com)
• Across the system, McDonald’s has widely deployed self-service kiosks, mobile ordering, automated beverage dispensers, and some automated kitchen systems (including robotic fryers in test locations), which can reduce certain labor needs but are being added piecemeal, not as a uniform, robot-centric package leased from corporate. (scribd.com)
• A major AI/automation initiative—automated drive‑thru order taking with IBM—was ended in 2024 without systemwide rollout, suggesting that even prominent automation pilots are still experimental and reversible, not settled core franchise infrastructure. (restaurantbusinessonline.com)
• Public descriptions of the McDonald’s franchise model and franchise disclosure materials indicate that franchisees are expected to buy their own equipment (with McDonald’s sometimes co‑investing in strategic initiatives), not that corporate is bundling and renting a standardized fleet of robots as part of the franchise fee. (docslib.org)

Putting this together, the specific scenario Chamath predicted—every new franchisee paying the same basic fee but receiving a corporate‑owned, rented “bevy of robots” that lets them operate with roughly 33–50% fewer employees than a 2022 McDonald’s—has not materialized by late 2025. Automation is advancing, but in a more incremental, uneven way and without the distinctive rental-robot franchise package.

However, Chamath’s normalized time horizon was “in the foreseeable future (roughly within a decade from 2022).” Since it is only about three years since the prediction, there are still roughly seven years left in that window. McDonald’s continues to invest in automation and AI as part of its long‑term strategy. (en.wikipedia.org)

Because the core predicted structure (robot suite rental + 33–50% staff reduction) has not yet appeared, but the stated decade‑long timeframe has not expired, the correct status as of now is **“inconclusive (too early).”