Chamath @ 00:17:37Right
marketseconomy
Following public comments by Jerome Powell and Gary Gensler in early October 2021 that crypto would not be banned, the U.S. SEC will approve one or more crypto-based ETFs (such as Grayscale’s conversion and others) as simpler on-ramps for U.S. investors in the ensuing years.
Look, we have two, almost $3 trillion of market cap in crypto. It's unrealistic for folks to expect people to be able to be living in discord channels and doing all of this work. I think what that means is that the SEC is going to be asked increasingly more often to approve simpler on ramps for this stuff. And now, in the last week, by the way, we had a pretty important two things happen. Both Jerome Powell and Gary Gensler basically said, crypto is here to stay and we're not going to ban this stuff. And so hopefully what it means is that you get some ETFs passed in the United States. You know, grayscale is one. There could be more. And I think that stuff makes it much easier for folks to own this stuff.View on YouTube
Explanation
The prediction was that, following early-October 2021 comments from Jerome Powell and Gary Gensler indicating the U.S. would not ban crypto, the SEC would in the ensuing years approve one or more crypto-based ETFs (including a potential Grayscale conversion) as simpler on-ramps for U.S. investors.
That has happened:
- In October 2021, shortly after those comments, the SEC allowed the first U.S. Bitcoin futures ETFs, such as ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO), to begin trading, marking the first SEC-approved crypto-based ETFs in the U.S.
- On January 10, 2024, the SEC approved multiple spot Bitcoin ETFs, including Grayscale’s conversion of GBTC into a spot Bitcoin ETF, along with products from BlackRock, Fidelity, and others. These are explicitly designed as regulated, simpler on-ramps for U.S. investors to gain Bitcoin exposure through traditional brokerage accounts.
- In 2024, the SEC also moved to approve spot Ethereum ETFs, further reinforcing the broader trend of SEC-approved crypto-based ETFs as mainstream access vehicles.
Because the SEC has in fact approved multiple crypto-based ETFs, including the specific Grayscale conversion mentioned, within a few years of the 2021 comments, this prediction is right.