Chamath @ 00:05:12Inconclusive
governmenttech
The U.S. Department of Justice’s 2023 antitrust lawsuit seeking to break up Google’s digital advertising business will ultimately fail in court and will not result in Google being broken up in ad-tech.
So for example, if you went back to the big, big, big monopolist case in the 1980s, which is when we broke up Ma Bell. Well, what that circle would have shown is that they basically had effectively 100% share. And what this shows is that there's a huge diversity of people in this market. The second thing is that if you had done this chart many years ago, Amazon would not have really even been there. And over the last five years, they represent almost 12% of the entire market. And it means that if you forecast it forward, they could be at 15 to 20% in a few years as well. So while the pie is growing and definitely Google takes a lot of the profit dollars, the distribution is so much more than what anything looks like in a monopoly. And so I just think it means that the DOJ is more focused on trying to punish these great American companies than it is in trying to be logical and reasoned. And so I don't think this is going to work. The last thing I'll say about this is that if you think about what you should have done, if I were the US government, I would have actually focused on search, because search is a monopoly for Google.View on YouTube
Explanation
As of November 30, 2025, the DOJ’s 2023 ad‑tech antitrust lawsuit against Google has not failed in court and is still active.
- In United States v. Google LLC (2023), filed January 24, 2023, the DOJ and several states alleged that Google illegally monopolized parts of the digital advertising technology stack and explicitly sought structural remedies, including forcing Google to sell significant ad‑tech assets.(en.wikipedia.org)
- On April 17, 2025, Judge Leonie Brinkema ruled that Google violated Section 2 of the Sherman Act, finding that Google illegally maintained monopoly power in the open‑web display publisher ad server and ad exchange markets, and unlawfully tied its publisher ad server (DFP) to its ad exchange (AdX). This is a clear liability win for the DOJ, not a failure.(en.wikipedia.org)
- The case is now in the remedies phase. The DOJ is asking the court to order structural divestitures (e.g., forcing Google to sell AdX and potentially Google Ad Manager/DFP), while Google argues for narrower behavioral remedies and says it will appeal.(reuters.com)
- Hearings on remedies were held in late 2025; Judge Brinkema has signaled caution about an immediate breakup and has not yet issued a final remedies order. A written decision on remedies is pending, and any order will likely be subject to appeals.(grokipedia.com)
Because (1) the DOJ has already won on key liability issues (contrary to the idea that the case would “fail”), but (2) the court has not yet decided what remedies to impose and no final judgment (including appeals) has been completed, we cannot yet determine whether the lawsuit will "ultimately fail" or whether it will "result in Google being broken up in ad‑tech." Therefore, the prediction’s accuracy is currently inconclusive (too early to tell).