On January 26, 2024, the S&P 500 closed at 4,890.97. This is our baseline level for “broad equity indices.” (statmuse.com)

Within the forecast window (July 26, 2025 to January 26, 2026):

• By July 2025, the S&P 500 was already in the low‑6300s; for example, on July 25 and 28, 2025 it closed around 6,388–6,390, roughly 30% above the January 26, 2024 level. (statmuse.com)
• News coverage in late July 2025 described the S&P 500 repeatedly setting record highs around 6,388, confirming a strong “melt‑up” phase. (cnbc.com)
• Most recently, on November 28, 2025, the S&P 500 closed at 6,849.09, about 40% higher than 4,890.97. (statmuse.com)

So far, reality is strongly consistent with Chamath’s view that 18–24 months later the market would be “materially higher” due to money on the sidelines re‑entering risk assets.

However, the prediction’s time window explicitly runs until late January 2026, which has not yet occurred as of November 30, 2025. A significant drawdown between now and January 26, 2026 could still change whether the market is “materially higher” at the end of the specified horizon. Because the full forecast period has not finished, the prediction cannot yet be definitively scored, even though it currently looks correct.

Therefore, the appropriate status is inconclusive (too early), with current evidence favoring that the prediction will end up being right if present levels roughly persist.