Chamath predicted that over the next 6–9 months from late January 2024, companies would realize consumers had less discretionary income and would respond by either cutting prices or lowering guidance/expectations.

1. Evidence that consumer discretionary capacity weakened in 2024

• By June 26, 2024, S&P Global reported that the S&P 500 consumer discretionary sector was the worst‑performing major sector (outside real estate) year‑to‑date, explicitly attributing this to depleted savings, still‑elevated inflation, rising credit‑card and auto delinquencies, and consumers who were “tapped” and “struggling.”(spglobal.com) This directly supports the idea that households’ effective discretionary income was lower.
• Adobe’s data on U.S. online sales from January–April 2024 showed spending up 7%, but driven disproportionately by cheaper products and private‑label goods, as households “prioritiz[ed] affordability” under pressure from housing, gas and food costs.(reuters.com) That is consistent with consumers trading down and having less true discretionary room.

2. Companies lowering expectations (guidance) in that window

• S&P Global’s April 15, 2024 sector‑risk analysis found that consumer‑discretionary companies were the most likely of any sector to lower earnings expectations in guidance between Jan. 1 and Mar. 31, 2024, citing examples like The Container Store and THOR Industries cutting sales forecasts amid softer demand and higher rates.(spglobal.com)
• On August 13, 2024 (about 6½ months after the podcast), Home Depot cut its full‑year profit and comparable‑sales guidance, explicitly blaming weaker consumer demand for home‑improvement projects due to high borrowing costs and macro uncertainty.(reuters.com)
• On August 21, 2024, Macy’s missed Q2 sales and lowered its full‑year sales outlook, with its CEO pointing to a “weakening consumer” and softer demand in categories like men’s clothing, home goods and handbags.(marketwatch.com)

3. Companies cutting prices / leaning on discounts and promotions

• Tesla cut U.S. prices on its Model Y, X and S by $2,000 in April 2024 after deliveries came in weak, a clear example of a major discretionary brand reducing prices to stimulate demand.(reuters.com)
• In May 2024, Walmart and Target both highlighted pressure on discretionary categories; Target said it would cut prices on 5,000 items to revive demand, while Walmart rolled back prices on roughly 7,000 products, aiming squarely at budget‑strained shoppers.(investopedia.com)
• By September 2024, industry data showed a sharp increase in promotions and advertised sale prices across major U.S. retailers (Walmart, Dollar General, CVS, Kroger, Albertsons, etc.), with Walmart more than doubling its digital promotions and emphasizing “rollbacks” to help cost‑conscious customers.(couponsinthenews.com)

4. Sector‑wide earnings pressure by Q3 2024

• For Q3 2024, S&P Global’s earnings review notes that consumer discretionary was among the weakest sectors for beating revenue and EPS expectations, reflecting “continued sector‑specific pressures” even as the broader S&P 500 grew earnings.(spglobal.com)

Taken together, the data for roughly February–October 2024 show: (a) consumers increasingly constrained and trading down, (b) a notable share of discretionary companies lowering guidance, and (c) widespread use of price cuts, promotions and discounting to support demand. That lines up closely with Chamath’s claim that as people’s discretionary income proved lower, companies would either cut prices or lower expectations, so the prediction is best classified as right.