Evidence from the first year of Trump’s second term shows a deliberate, multi-front push to declassify and release previously non‑public federal information, especially in the early months, which broadly matches Chamath’s prediction about “phase one.”

Key points:

• Early executive order focused on declassification: On January 23, 2025, just three days into his second term, Trump signed Executive Order 14176 directing the declassification of remaining records related to the assassinations of John F. Kennedy, Robert F. Kennedy, and Martin Luther King Jr.(en.wikipedia.org)
• Large volumes of previously withheld records released online: Following that order, the National Archives released about 77,000 pages of assassination-related records between March 18–20, 2025, making them accessible via a centralized public webpage; officials and allies described this as a “new era of maximum transparency.”(en.wikipedia.org)
• Ongoing declassification/transparency push in the intelligence community: Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard set up the Director’s Initiatives Group to review documents for declassification, dismantle politicization, and increase transparency across the intelligence community, explicitly framed as carrying out Trump’s transparency-focused executive orders.(dni.gov)
• Broader set of disclosure initiatives (Epstein, etc.): The administration publicly committed to declassifying files on Jeffrey Epstein, 9/11, COVID‑19 origins, and UFOs; this was followed by the bipartisan Epstein Files Transparency Act, passed almost unanimously in Congress and signed by Trump on November 19, 2025, requiring DOJ to release all unclassified Epstein-related records within 30 days.(thetimes.co.uk)
• Additional declassified analytic products: A declassified CIA assessment on COVID‑19’s origins was released under Trump’s CIA director (implementing an earlier law but executed as part of the broader transparency framing), further adding to the volume of previously non-public intelligence material made public.(apnews.com)

At the same time, there has been an aggressive removal and suppression of other federal data and web resources—over 8,000 webpages and about 3,000 datasets (often on DEI, gender, public health, and climate) were taken down or altered after Trump’s early 2025 executive orders, which clearly cuts the other way on overall openness.(en.wikipedia.org) This means the reality is mixed and falls short of the “Twitter files for the whole federal government” vision Chamath described.(podcasts.happyscribe.com)

However, judged narrowly against the specific normalized prediction—that the initial phase of the new Trump administration would feature a broad declassification/data‑release drive making large amounts of previously non‑public federal information openly accessible—the substantial, early, and ongoing declassification and document‑release campaign around assassinations, intelligence products, and Epstein does fit that description. Hence the prediction is best scored as right, while noting that it coexists with major efforts to restrict access to other categories of government information.