ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Chamath
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Chamath @ 01:12:51Wrong
economy
From mid-2022, U.S. inflation prints will remain very high (around 8–9% year-over-year) for the next three months due in part to lagged rent effects; then by November–December 2022, global oil prices could reach approximately $180 per barrel due to Russian gas cuts to Europe and limited OPEC supply, which would in turn push inflation back up into the 7–9% range during that winter period.
these next three months, as I as I kind of indicated last week, I think we're going to see inflation, uh, prints that are really high, in part because things like rents, which haven't, you know, which are on a lag, will get folded back in. So we're going to be printing eight and 9%. And then guess what Jason. It's the fall. It starts to get colder. You know, uh, Russia's depriving Europe of nat gas. Um, where is the oil going to come from? OPEC is basically still stiff arming the United States with respect to expanded production capacity... So where do we stand? You could have $180 a barrel oil by November, December when it's cold, not just here, but in continental Europe. Now all of a sudden inflation gets kicks right back up again. It could be seven, eight 9% againView on YouTube
Explanation

The near-term part of Chamath’s call was broadly accurate, but the core of the prediction – a huge oil spike and a renewed inflation surge in late 2022 – did not happen.

  1. Next three months of high inflation (mid-2022): After the June 2022 CPI release (9.1% year-over-year), U.S. headline inflation stayed in the 8–9% range for the following months: July 8.5%, August 8.3%, and September 8.2%, all year-over-year figures from BLS data. (theworlddata.com) That aligns reasonably well with his statement that “these next three months … we’re going to be printing eight and 9%.”

  2. Oil at ~$180/barrel by Nov–Dec 2022: Global oil prices never came close to $180. Brent crude peaked around $133/barrel earlier in 2022 and by November–December 2022 was mostly in the mid‑80s to mid‑90s per barrel. Weekly EIA data show Brent in November 2022 between about $86 and $96, and in December 2022 mostly in the high‑70s to low‑80s. (eia.gov) This is far below the predicted ~$180.

  3. Inflation ‘kicking back up’ to 7–9% in winter 2022: Rather than re-accelerating, U.S. headline CPI inflation continued to decline into late 2022. After 8.2% in September, it fell to 7.7% in October, 7.1% in November, and 6.5% in December year-over-year. (theworlddata.com) That means by December, inflation was already below the bottom of his projected 7–9% “kicked back up again” range, and the trajectory was clearly downward, not another spike driven by energy.

Because the key conditional scenario he described (oil to ~$180 and a renewed winter inflation surge) clearly failed to occur, the overall prediction is best judged as wrong, despite the short-term accuracy about summer 2022’s elevated inflation prints.