The prediction covers roughly 30 years beyond 2018 (to about 2048–2055), so as of November 30, 2025 we are far too early in the forecast window to know whether future presidents will eventually roll tariffs back to pre‑2018 baselines.

Evidence to date is consistent with Chamath’s claim but cannot prove it. Before the 2018 trade war, average U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods were about 2.7%; they rose to about 19% by 2023 and, after further escalations and partial de‑escalations in 2025, still remain dramatically above the pre‑2018 level. (congress.gov) President Biden’s 2024 Section 301 review chose to maintain Trump’s China tariffs and in many sectors (EVs, batteries, semiconductors, solar cells, steel and aluminum, etc.) to increase them substantially rather than cut them. (cambridge.org) Earlier reporting also noted that Biden, despite criticizing Trump’s approach during the 2020 campaign, kept the Trump‑era tariffs in place once in office. (npr.org) More recently, under President Donald Trump in 2025, U.S.–China tariffs were driven to very high levels (well above 100% on average) and then partially reduced in a negotiated truce, but even the reduced levels are still far above the pre‑2018 baseline, not a rollback to it. (reuters.com)

Because only a small fraction of the 30‑year horizon has elapsed, and future administrations could still fundamentally change course, the prediction cannot yet be classified as definitively right or wrong. Therefore the appropriate status is: inconclusive (too early).