As of November 30, 2025, California has not yet implemented any billionaire wealth tax, so Chamath’s conditional, longer‑term prediction cannot be meaningfully judged.

• The main current effort is the 2026 Billionaire Tax Act, a proposed statewide ballot initiative to impose a one‑time 5% tax on net worth above roughly $1–1.1 billion, targeting around 200 billionaires. It has only been filed and is in the signature‑gathering phase for the November 2026 ballot; it is not law and has not taken effect. (seiu-uhw.org)
• An earlier legislative attempt, AB 259 (2023–2024), would have created an ongoing wealth tax with a structure that did push the threshold down over time (initially taxing net worth above $1 billion, then extending to wealth above $50 million after 2026). However, AB 259 failed in committee on February 1, 2024 and never became law. (calmatters.digitaldemocracy.org)

Chamath’s normalized prediction was: if California’s billionaire wealth‑tax framework is implemented and sustained, the threshold will eventually be lowered below $1 billion. Since no such framework has been enacted or sustained yet, we can’t evaluate whether the threshold would later be pushed down in practice. The necessary precondition for the prediction to be tested has not occurred, so the outcome remains unknown.