Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Chamath
Chamath @ 00:27:56Inconclusive
politicsgovernment
Within roughly 20–30 years from 2021 (i.e., by 2041–2051), the United States will see the emergence of a more competent and sophisticated authoritarian-style populist leader (“American strongman or strong woman”) who is more effective than Donald Trump at building and maintaining mass support while avoiding many of his obvious flaws.
over the next 20 or 30 years, these polarizing figures will become crisper, sharper, smarter. You know, they'll find a way to foment all of all of the support without any of the long tail shittiness that Trump figured out like Trump was. You know, he's like a beta test of an idea, right? He was like version 0.1. Wait till we see version 1.0 of the American Strongman or Strong Woman. It's really going to be fucking scary.View on YouTube
Explanation

The prediction explicitly describes a 20–30 year horizon “over the next 20 or 30 years” from 2021, i.e., roughly 2041–2051, for the emergence of a more competent U.S. authoritarian-style populist leader (“version 1.0 of the American Strongman or Strong Woman”). As of the current date (November 29, 2025), we are only about 4 years into that 20–30 year window. That is far too early to determine whether such a leader will or will not emerge, and there is no objective, widely accepted standard or evidence that a clearly defined figure matching this description has already appeared and consolidated power in the United States.

Because the prediction is explicitly about developments expected mainly decades in the future, and the specified timeframe has not yet elapsed, its accuracy cannot be evaluated at this point.