Chamath’s prediction has two parts: long mine-permitting timelines and very near‑term metal shortages.

1. Permitting timelines (~20 years) in the Western Hemisphere
Multiple post‑2021 analyses still describe very long lead times for new large metal mines:

• S&P Global and the IEA report that a new copper mine typically takes about 16–17 years from discovery to first production, reflecting long periods for exploration, permitting, financing, and construction, with some projects stretching beyond 20 years. (cnbc.com)
• A mining commentary focused on North America notes that in Canada and the United States it can take up to 20 years to build a mine after consultations and permitting at federal and sub‑national levels. (mining.com)
• Canada’s Mining Association describes planning and approval for new projects as 10–15 years and says there’s broad consensus this must be shortened. (mining.ca)
  These sources indicate that, through the mid‑2020s, large Western‑Hemisphere metal mines still require on the order of 15–20 years to permit and develop. So this part of his view (that timelines are extremely long and remain so) is broadly accurate.

2. “Our shortages start in the next year” (i.e., by ~March 2022)
Here the timing is off:

• For copper, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) estimates a refined market deficit of about 475,000 tonnes in 2021, less than 2% of demand—tight, but not a severe structural shortage. (mining.com)
• By late 2021, ICSG and S&P Global expected 2022 to be in surplus and “well supplied”, with a forecast refined copper surplus of roughly 300,000 tonnes, not a shortage. (spglobal.com)
• Major studies in 2022–2023 (S&P Global, IEA, International Energy Forum) warn that structural copper shortages are likely to begin around the mid‑2020s (as early as ~2025) and then widen sharply toward 2030–2035, threatening the energy transition if new mines aren’t built. That is, they project future deficits; they do not identify 2022 as the start of a sustained shortage era. (ief.org)
• For nickel used in EV batteries, 2021–2022 analyses (Rystad, others) generally forecast shortages emerging mid‑decade (2023–2026), not in 2022. (globalenergyprize.org) The dramatic March 2022 nickel price spike and LME trading suspension were driven largely by a short squeeze and Russia‑Ukraine war risk, rather than a sudden, broad physical shortage for electrification uses. (reuters.com)
• Throughout 2021–2022, clean‑energy deployment (EVs, solar, wind) continued to grow rapidly; the main bottlenecks widely reported were semiconductors and logistics, not an inability to procure copper or nickel at any price.

In other words, while markets were tightening and prices were rising, the consensus view and data do not show a clear, sustained copper/nickel shortage specifically constraining electrification beginning by March 2022. Structural shortages are now expected or beginning several years later than he claimed.

Because the long‑permitting part of the statement is basically correct but the central prediction—that significant metal shortages for electrification would start within about one year of March 2021—did not materialize on that timeline, the overall prediction is best judged as wrong.