Chamath @ 00:54:47Inconclusive
economy
In California, retail electricity prices will continue rising at roughly 7–11% per year, causing average electricity costs for consumers to double again within approximately the next 6–7 years from 2022 levels.
while the cost of generating renewable power has fallen by 90%, you know, virtually it's on par and it's cheaper than any other form of generation. Your electricity costs have doubled and are probably going to double again in a state like California. So, you know, we're catering our our utility rates by, you know, 7 to 11%. Um, every yearView on YouTube
Explanation
The prediction has a 6–7 year horizon from 2022, i.e., through roughly 2028–2029, while the current date is November 30, 2025. That means only about 3 years of the forecast window have elapsed, so we cannot yet know whether prices will in fact “double again” by the end of the stated period.
What we can check so far:
- U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data show that California’s average retail electricity prices for residential customers have indeed risen substantially since 2022 (following strong increases that began earlier in the decade), but the final cumulative increase and full 6–7‑year path are not yet observable. Current prices do not yet represent a completed doubling from 2022 levels, nor do they show a clear, sustained reversal that would falsify the claim early; instead, they remain on an elevated, rising trajectory consistent with higher year‑over‑year growth, though exact annualized percentages vary by year and customer class.
Because (a) the forecast period is not over, and (b) nothing in the realized data so far definitively contradicts the possibility of doubling by 2028–2029, the only defensible judgment as of late 2025 is that the prediction’s accuracy is inconclusive (too early to tell).