Evaluating each part of Chamath’s linked prediction:

1. “Spend, spend, spend” will drive higher inflation.
   • U.S. CPI inflation rose from around 1–2% in 2020 to a peak of 9.1% year‑over‑year in June 2022, the highest in about four decades, confirming a sharp post‑2021 inflation surge. (usinflationcalculator.com)
   • Research from the San Francisco Fed and others finds that pandemic fiscal support, including the American Rescue Plan, added several percentage points to core inflation relative to a no‑stimulus baseline, and excess savings from government transfers closely tracked the rise and fall of “excess” inflation. (en.wikipedia.org)
   Verdict on (1): directionally right – Biden‑era fiscal policy was one important driver of the inflation spike, even though supply shocks and other factors also mattered.

2. It will drive commodity prices higher.
   • The World Bank reported that energy prices in 2021 were expected to average more than 80% higher than 2020, with broad gains across energy, agriculture, and metals; prices remained elevated into 2022 before easing later. (worldbank.org)
   • U.S. energy components of the CPI (gasoline, fuel oil, etc.) showed year‑over‑year gains on the order of 40–60% by mid‑2022. (usinflationcalculator.com)
   Verdict on (2): right in the relevant “years following early 2021” window – commodity prices did in fact surge.

3. It will “suppress the wealth creation of the rich.”
   • Billionaire and top‑1% wealth increased dramatically during and after the pandemic. Oxfam’s analysis of Forbes data finds that 2021 saw the largest annual increase in billionaire wealth on record, driven largely by trillions in government support. (oxfamamerica.org)
   • A 2025 Oxfam‑linked report and related coverage show the top 10 U.S. billionaires’ combined wealth roughly doubled from about $976 billion in January 2021 to about $2.0 trillion by early 2025. (theguardian.com)
   • Federal Reserve Distributional Financial Accounts and subsequent summaries indicate that the top 1% share of U.S. wealth edged up, from roughly 30–31% pre‑pandemic to about 31% by 2025:Q2, while the bottom 50% share rose only modestly to about 2.5%. (en.wikipedia.org)
   • A San Francisco Fed letter on “pandemic excess wealth” finds that households accumulated about $13 trillion in excess real net worth by late 2021, driven mainly by financial assets—benefiting wealthier households the most—even though some of that excess wealth was later eroded when markets corrected. (frbsf.org)
   Verdict on (3): wrong – in absolute and relative terms, the rich saw very large wealth gains in the Biden era; there is no sign that their wealth creation was “suppressed” compared with recent history.

4. It will raise real earned income for people without significant investments, leading them to spend more.
   • Pandemic‑era relief and strong labor markets did initially boost disposable income and savings broadly. Fed researchers estimate U.S. households accumulated about $2.3 trillion in excess savings through mid‑2021, with the lower half of the income distribution still holding about $350 billion of that by mid‑2022, largely due to fiscal stimulus. (federalreserve.gov)
   • However, high inflation in 2021–2022 eroded those gains. Census data show that real median household income in 2024 was essentially flat vs. 2023, and some groups (e.g., Black households) saw real income declines; elevated prices “quashed” much of the apparent nominal income progress. (washingtonpost.com)
   • BLS data show that real average hourly earnings for private‑sector workers fell during the main inflation surge and only posted modest positive year‑over‑year gains again by 2023–2025, meaning many workers spent years with real pay below where it would have been on the pre‑pandemic trend. (bls.gov)
   • On the spending side, evidence suggests that high‑income households have come to dominate consumption. By 2024–2025, the top 10% of earners accounted for about 49.7% of all consumer spending, a record share, and their spending rose much faster than that of working‑class and middle‑class households, whose spending barely kept up with inflation. (wsj.com)
   Verdict on (4): mostly wrong – there was a temporary stimulus‑driven boost, but sustained increases in real earned income for non‑investors are weak, and recent consumption growth is increasingly led by the rich, not by people without significant assets.

Overall assessment:
Chamath correctly anticipated that large Biden‑era fiscal stimulus would coincide with higher inflation and a run‑up in commodity prices. But the more distinctive and core part of his thesis—that this “spend, spend, spend” era would shift the balance of wealth creation and real income toward those without investments and away from the rich—has been contradicted by subsequent data. Wealth at the top has surged, the top 1%’s share of wealth has not been meaningfully reduced, real income gains for lower‑asset households have been limited and uneven, and the economy has grown more—not less—dependent on high‑income consumers’ spending.

Because the key distributional predictions (3) and (4) have clearly not materialized, the overall forecast is best classified as wrong, despite being partially right on inflation and commodities.