Multiple major “risk asset” benchmarks put in decisive cycle lows in late 2022 and have not undercut those lows through late 2025.

• U.S. equities: The S&P 500’s bear‑market closing low was 3,577.03 on October 12, 2022, which is widely cited as the bear‑market bottom; by June 2023 it had risen more than 20% off that level, marking the start of a new bull market, and later data still reference 3,577.03 as the 52‑week/bear‑market low. These lows have not been broken in subsequent corrections. (en.wikipedia.org)
• Growth/tech equities: The Nasdaq Composite’s bear‑market closing low occurred on December 28, 2022 at 10,213.29; later corrections in 2023–2025 have all occurred at much higher index levels, confirming that the trough remained in late 2022. (investing.com)
• Crypto as a high‑beta risk asset: Bitcoin’s cycle low occurred around November 21, 2022, when it traded below $16,000; later on‑chain and market analyses explicitly identify that sub‑$16k level in November 2022 as the bear‑market bottom, and prices in 2024–2025 remain many multiples above it despite volatility. (statmuse.com)
• Global equity risk: Analyses of the 2022 stock market decline and MSCI ACWI performance note that global equities, including ACWI, reached their nadir in October 2022 before beginning a sustained recovery; by 2025 ACWI is trading far above its 2022 levels, consistent with an October‑2022 global risk‑asset bottom. (grokipedia.com)

Given that the broad U.S. equity market, global equities, and a canonical high‑beta risk asset (Bitcoin) all made durable cycle lows in late 2022 (October–December) and have not set new lows since, Chamath’s prediction that “risk assets will bottom out by the end of this year, beginning of next year” is well aligned with how the cycle actually played out.