Evidence from the major U.S. equity indices matches Chamath’s call that by roughly late 2022 / early 2023 the market would have bottomed and begun base‑building rather than continuing its 2022 downtrend.

1. S&P 500 timing and bottom

   • The S&P 500’s bear‑market low is widely identified as October 12, 2022, when it closed at 3,577.03; SEC tables list 3,577.03 as the low for Q4 2022. (cnbc.com)
   • In Q1 2023 the S&P 500 traded in a higher range (low 3,808.10; high 4,179.76; quarter‑end 4,109.31), i.e., it did not make a lower low after October 2022. (sec.gov)
   • By June 8, 2023 the index had risen more than 20% off its October 12 low, and multiple market commentaries and data providers marked this as the official end of the bear market and start of a new cyclical bull, with the bull market’s start date defined as the October 12, 2022 trough. (rbcapitalmanagement.com)
   • By late 2024–2025, S&P 500 analyses and Reuters describe the ongoing advance as the same bull market that began from the October 12, 2022 bottom, with the index up on the order of ~90% from that low by October 2025. (reuters.com)
     Collectively, this shows the S&P 500 put in a cyclical bottom in October 2022 (within Chamath’s “by the end of this year” window) and then moved into a base‑and‑rally phase rather than continuing its prior steep downtrend.

2. Nasdaq Composite timing and bottom

   • Reuters and other reports document that the Nasdaq Composite made its bear‑market closing low on December 28, 2022, at 10,213.29, the lowest level of the decline that began in late 2021. (investing.com)
   • Historical summaries of Nasdaq closing milestones likewise identify 10,213.29 on December 28, 2022 as the “ultimate low” of the 2022 bear market. (grokipedia.com)
   • From early 2023 onward, the Nasdaq began a powerful recovery: by the end of 2023 it was up more than 40% for the year, largely driven by a renewed tech/AI rally, and by late 2024 it had roughly doubled from its 2022 low, surpassing 20,000. (cnbc.com)
     These data show the Nasdaq’s cyclical bottom occurred in late December 2022—again squarely inside Chamath’s “end of this year” timeframe—with early 2023 marking the transition into a new uptrend/base rather than a continuation of the 2022 slide.

3. No undercut of those lows after Q1 2023

   • SEC and index data through at least late 2024/2025 show that the S&P 500 never revisited or broke below its October 12, 2022 low: subsequent quarterly lows stayed hundreds of points above 3,577.03. (sec.gov)
   • Similarly, later volatility and even new bear markets (e.g., for the Russell 2000 and a 2025 Nasdaq bear from much higher levels) occurred far above the 2022 troughs, consistent with those 2022 lows being the prior cycle’s bottom rather than waypoints in a still‑ongoing decline. (cnbc.com)

4. Match to Chamath’s prediction

   • He predicted that “by the end of this year, beginning of next year” (i.e., roughly late 2022 into early 2023) the major U.S. indices would have bottomed and begin building a base, rather than continuing the sharp downtrend.
   • In reality, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite did put in their cycle lows in October 2022 and December 2022, respectively, and by Q1 2023 were trading in higher ranges that, in hindsight, marked the early phase of the current bull market. (sec.gov)

Given that both key benchmarks (S&P 500 and Nasdaq) bottomed within his stated window and then transitioned into a base‑and‑advance phase that has, with hindsight, been recognized as the start of a new bull market, the prediction is best judged as right.