As of November 30, 2025, it is too early to determine whether Chamath’s five‑year prediction (deadline October 11, 2029) will come true.

Key facts:

• The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) and state attorneys general have active antitrust cases against Google, notably over search and advertising practices. In the search case (filed 2020), a federal judge ruled in August 2024 that Google illegally maintained a monopoly in search, and the case moved into a remedies phase where potential solutions — including behavioral and structural remedies — are being considered, but no final remedy order has yet been issued.
• Reporting on the remedies phase consistently describes that possible outcomes could include changes to default search agreements or aspects of Google’s ad tech stack, but as of late 2025 there has been no court‑ordered breakup or mandated divestiture of Chrome, Android, or major ad businesses, nor any other confirmed “forced structural remedy.” (This is based on current coverage of the DOJ v. Google proceedings and follow‑up reporting on the remedies phase.)

Because the prediction explicitly allows the full window through October 11, 2029, and we are only in 2025 with remedies still under consideration and litigation ongoing, the correct classification today is:

• Result: inconclusive – The prediction could still become true or false; the outcome of the DOJ’s remedies process and any appeals is not yet known, and the deadline has not arrived.