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Last updated Nov 29, 2025
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Chamath @ 00:11:36Right
markets
As of early October 2022, public equity markets are in a bottoming and consolidation process, are closer to their ultimate cycle lows than to the highs, and the remaining downside from that point is only on the order of 3–5% before the market puts in its low.
It's another data point that again, I said it last week. I'll go out on a limb and predict my equivalent November fall predictions. Last fall it was that the markets were going to poop the bed. My prediction now is that I think the markets are bottoming and consolidating... I think that, um, when when companies like Facebook really do this... it's yet another indication to me that I think, broadly speaking, the markets are now starting to stabilize... I'll go I'll go out on a limb. I think, you know, we could be 3 to 5% from the lows, but we're more near the lows than the highs.View on YouTube
Explanation

Chamath made this call around the start of October 2022, just after the S&P 500 had broken to new bear‑market lows in late September.

S&P 500:

  • The podcast date is Oct 1, 2022 (a Saturday), so the relevant nearby trading close is Oct 3, 2022, when the S&P 500 closed at 3,678.43. StatMuse’s October 2022 data shows this close on Oct 3. (statmuse.com)
  • The ultimate bear‑market closing low for the S&P 500 in that cycle was 3,577.03 on Oct 12, 2022, about nine days later. (statmuse.com)
  • From 3,678.43 (Oct 3) to 3,577.03 (Oct 12) is a drop of about 2.8%, slightly under his 3%–5% band; using the intraday trough the next day (low 3,491.58 on Oct 13), the maximum drawdown from Oct 3 was about 5.1%, right in his 3%–5% range. (statmuse.com)
  • The prior cycle high was about 4,796 on Jan 3, 2022, so by early October the S&P was already more than 20% below the high but only a few percent above the eventual low, meaning it was clearly “closer to the lows than the highs.” (statmuse.com)
  • Later reporting from Reuters and Axios explicitly notes that the bear market ended at the Oct 12, 2022 low and that the index has been in a bull market since then, with new record highs set in January 2024. (investing.com)

Nasdaq Composite:

  • On Oct 3, 2022 the Nasdaq Composite closed at 10,815.43. (statmuse.com)
  • Its cycle closing low came later at 10,213.29 on Dec 28, 2022, which is about 5.6% below the Oct 3 close—again, only a mid‑single‑digit downside from early October. (statmuse.com)
  • The prior record high near 16,057 in November 2021 means that, by early October 2022, the Nasdaq was much closer to that future low than to its old high. (statmuse.com)

Bottoming / consolidation and cycle context:

  • No major U.S. index has traded below those Oct–Dec 2022 lows since; instead, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gone on to make new all‑time highs in 2024–2025, confirming those levels as the cycle bottoms. (investing.com)

Putting this together: from early October 2022, broad U.S. equity indices had only about 3–6% further downside to their ultimate bear‑market lows, and those lows marked the start of a new bull market. That matches Chamath’s claim that markets were bottoming, consolidating, closer to their lows than to their highs, with only ~3–5% further downside remaining. Hence the prediction is best classified as right.