If I had to predict I think what David said is absolutely right. You're going to see unemployment get to an awkward and uncomfortable number five, 6%, I think could be something that we see. And I think you're going to see a lot more companies pull way back on their spend, because demand is going to really modulate.View on YouTube
Bureau of Labor Statistics data show that the U.S. unemployment rate stayed in the mid‑3% range throughout 2023 (roughly 3.4–3.8% by month) and only edged up to about 4.2% by late 2024, never approaching the 5–6% range Chamath described. (bls.gov) Even by September–October 2025, unemployment is estimated around 4.3–4.4%, still well below 5%. (reuters.com)
On the recession part, the National Bureau of Economic Research’s Business Cycle Dating Committee has not declared any new U.S. recession after the brief COVID downturn that bottomed in April 2020; indicators based on NBER dates show no recession episodes in 2022–2025 to date. (nber.org) This contradicts the “hard‑landing recession around 2023” scenario implied in the prediction.
Chamath also said many companies would “pull way back on their spend.” That aspect is broadly accurate: 2023–2024 saw large cost‑cutting and layoffs across big tech and other sectors (e.g., Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, Salesforce, PayPal, SAP, Wayfair, and others) explicitly tied to expense reduction and weaker demand/over‑expansion. (engadget.com) However, this partial match does not rescue the core forecast, which hinged on a hard‑landing recession and unemployment rising to about 5–6%, neither of which occurred by late 2025. Therefore the prediction is best classified as wrong overall.