Data for 2023 show neither the U.S. nor the world economy experienced a hard‑landing recession:

• The U.S. economy grew in 2023: real GDP rose 2.5% for the year, with all four quarters positive, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. (bea.gov)
• The National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter of U.S. recessions, has not dated any new recession after the April 2020 trough, meaning the period through 2023 is still classified as an expansion. (nber.org)
• The labor market remained strong: the unemployment rate averaged about 3.8% in Q4 2023, which the Bureau of Labor Statistics explicitly describes as low by historical standards, not consistent with a hard‑landing downturn. (bls.gov)
• Globally, the IMF’s World Economic Outlook put 2023 world GDP growth around 3.0%, a slowdown but not a global recession. (meetings.imf.org)

One part of the prediction did occur: “something broke” in 2023 in the financial system. The failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic were the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th largest bank failures in U.S. history and triggered a recognized “2023 United States banking crisis,” prompting systemic‑risk interventions by the FDIC and Federal Reserve to stem contagion. (fdic.gov)

However, the normalized claim ties that break to the occurrence of a hard‑landing recession in 2023 in the U.S. or globally. Since the dominant economic outcome was continued expansion with relatively low unemployment and no officially recognized recession, the overall prediction—as framed—is wrong, despite being partly right about a significant financial “break.”