Most data and official assessments indicate the U.S. did not experience a broad-based recession or a “hard landing” in 2023.

Key points:

1. No official 2023 recession call
   The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which is the standard arbiter of U.S. recessions, has not dated any recession beginning or occurring in 2023; the most recent recession it recognizes is the COVID downturn of February–April 2020.【】

2. Positive real GDP growth in 2023
   U.S. real GDP grew throughout 2023 rather than contracting. Bureau of Economic Analysis data show real GDP increasing for the year (annual growth around 2–3%, depending on measure), not the sustained contraction typical of a broad-based recession. (Multiple BEA releases for 2023 confirm positive quarterly growth.)【】

3. Labor market remained strong
   The unemployment rate stayed historically low through 2023 (roughly in the 3.4–3.9% range), and payroll employment continued to rise, which is inconsistent with a classic hard-landing recession characterized by broad job losses.【】

4. Soft‑/no‑landing narrative by late 2023
   By late 2023, many major financial press and economic commentators described the U.S. outcome as a soft landing or even “no landing,” emphasizing slowing inflation without a deep downturn, rather than a hard-landing recession. Fed officials themselves increasingly referenced the possibility that a soft landing had been or might be achieved.【】

Because the prediction was specific to 2023 and called for a broad-based recession with a hard landing, and the observable macroeconomic outcomes showed continued expansion, low unemployment, and no NBER recession in that year, the prediction is best classified as wrong.