As of November 2025, there is not yet broad societal or public‑health consensus that the prescribing of ADHD medications and antidepressants to children constitutes a major public health disaster on the scale of the opioid crisis.

1. Opioid crisis remains uniquely severe and clearly defined. The U.S. opioid epidemic has caused more than 500,000 deaths since 1999 and continues to generate tens of thousands of overdose deaths annually; states like Massachusetts and California still report enormous economic and mortality burdens tied specifically to opioids.(jamanetwork.com) This remains the benchmark "public health disaster" in policy, media, and medical literature.

2. Psychotropic use in children is high and controversial, but framed inconsistently. Advocacy and civil‑rights groups (e.g., NAACP) and anti‑psychiatry organizations argue that psychotropic “drugging” and overprescription in children, particularly in foster care and marginalized communities, constitute a serious problem or even a “national crisis.”(naacp.org) Research also documents large numbers of children on ADHD medication and a steep rise in medication errors, though serious outcomes and deaths remain rare.(publications.aap.org) This shows concern, but not a unified framing as a disaster equivalent to the opioid epidemic.

3. Current federal and medical discourse is mixed, not consensus-level alarm. The Trump administration’s Make America Healthy Again initiative explicitly flags medication overprescription (including psychiatric drugs for children) as a leading threat to child health, but major medical voices in venues like JAMA Pediatrics caution that the commission’s assessment may not fully align with the broader evidence base.(washingtonpost.com) This indicates an active debate, not settled “we look at this like the opioid crisis” hindsight.

4. Mainstream psychiatry often sees stimulants as beneficial and sometimes underused. Large reviews and consensus statements cited in reference works describe methylphenidate and other ADHD stimulants as among the more effective medical treatments, associated with reductions in injuries, substance abuse, and mortality when appropriately used.(en.wikipedia.org) Other research and summaries argue that, relative to diagnosed need, stimulants and antidepressants may actually be underprescribed to U.S. youth, countering the narrative of massive overprescription.(additudemag.com)

5. Rising prescriptions and shortages are seen as a policy problem, not yet a declared catastrophe. ADHD prescriptions have increased sharply in several countries, and U.S. Adderall shortages since 2022 have been partly attributed to surging demand, possible overdiagnosis/overprescription, and DEA quota limits.(theguardian.com) Yet even where overmedicalization is criticized, policy and media discussions do not generally label the situation as a public health disaster on par with the opioid epidemic.

Because the prediction is explicitly about future hindsight (“we’re going to look at this like the opioid crisis”) and no such broad retrospective consensus exists yet—while the long‑term judgment could still change—the status of the claim is best characterized as too early to call rather than definitively right or wrong.