The condition for the prediction was met: there was no negotiated resolution to the Russia–Ukraine war within weeks of 10 September 2022; the conflict continued without a peace deal into late 2022 and beyond, as reflected in EU economic forecasts that explicitly assume an ongoing war. (economy-finance.ec.europa.eu)

However, the scale and nature of the outcomes Friedberg forecast did not materialize:

Civil unrest

• There were notable cost‑of‑living and energy‑price protests: e.g., about 70,000 people demonstrated in Prague on 3 September 2022 over energy prices and government policy, and further large protests followed in the Czech Republic. (en.wikipedia.org)
• France saw nationwide protests and strikes in October–November 2022 over rising living costs, which included some rioting but were time‑limited and politically familiar rather than system‑threatening. (en.wikipedia.org)
• Broader “Europe inflation protests” occurred across several countries (France, Germany, Romania, Czech Republic), with media noting elevated risk of civil unrest but describing protests as strikes and demonstrations, not continent‑wide breakdown. (en.wikipedia.org)

These events show heightened protests and some unrest, but not the sort of sustained, widespread “significant rioting and civil unrest in Europe” that would match the very dire scenario Friedberg described.

Economic impact

• At the EU/euro‑area level, GDP in 2022 still grew about 3.2–3.5%, and while growth slowed sharply, the EU ultimately avoided a large recession: the European Commission’s Winter and Spring 2023 forecasts describe 2023 growth around 0.8–1.1% with the bloc avoiding the winter recession that had been feared. (economy-finance.ec.europa.eu)
• The IMF similarly characterized the downturn as a mild technical recession around early 2023, with modest growth thereafter, not a deep, prolonged contraction. (imf.org)
• On the energy side, analyses of the 2022–23 winter conclude that “Europe has avoided the worst of the energy crisis”, crediting mild weather, demand reduction, and rapid build‑out of renewables; the feared catastrophic shortages and mass industrial shutdowns did not occur. (sonnenseite.com)

Some individual economies, especially Germany, did experience a serious multi‑year downturn, with 2023 and 2024 contractions and commentators calling it the country’s “greatest crisis in post‑war history.” (en.wikipedia.org) But even with Germany’s problems, the overall European picture was one of high inflation and slower growth, cushioned by massive fiscal support, rather than a “cataclysmic” Europe‑wide economic collapse or deep continent‑wide contraction.

Because the war did indeed continue without a deal, yet Europe experienced limited, episodic unrest and a difficult but not cataclysmic economic adjustment, Friedberg’s conditional prediction is best judged as wrong overall, despite correctly anticipating directionally higher unrest and economic strain.