Available post‑election data broadly support Chamath’s prediction that Biden’s 2022 student loan forgiveness plan did not become a top‑tier motivator for most voters, nor is there clear evidence that it materially boosted turnout.

1. Issue salience vs. other concerns
   National polling before the 2022 midterms consistently found inflation/economy and abortion at the top of voters’ priority lists; student loans were not listed among the leading concerns. An NPR/Marist poll, for example, reported inflation as the top issue overall and abortion as the next most important, without student debt appearing as a primary category. (wusf.org)
   Among college students and young voters—those most directly affected by student debt—survey data show that student debt ranked only about eighth in importance, behind issues like gun control, racial inequality, healthcare, climate change, inflation, and abortion. (bestcolleges.com) This aligns with Chamath’s claim that, "at the polls," other issues would matter more.

2. Turnout effects
   An NPR piece focusing on young voters, citing Democratic strategist and elections analyst Tom Bonier, noted that while the forgiveness plan was popular, he “hasn’t seen any significant boosts in voter registration or turnout” that could be attributed specifically to Biden’s student loan executive order, contrasting it with the clear mobilizing effect of the Dobbs abortion decision. (wfae.org) That is consistent with the prediction that the policy would not materially increase turnout.

3. Counter‑evidence and why it’s limited
   A post‑midterm poll commissioned by the Student Borrower Protection Center (an advocacy group) found that 51% of 1,500 voters surveyed said student debt relief was the only, very, or somewhat motivating reason they voted, and more than three‑quarters of under‑30 voters in that sample reported it as a motivating factor. (newsweek.com) However, this evidence is limited: it comes from a single advocacy‑sponsored survey of a relatively small sample and does not show that student loan relief was a top issue relative to inflation or abortion, nor that it produced a measurable, system‑wide turnout surge.

Taken together, neutral polling and post‑election analyses indicate that while student loan forgiveness was popular with many borrowers and may have modestly influenced preferences at the margins, it did not emerge as a leading issue or a clearly documented driver of turnout in the 2022 midterms. That matches the substance of Chamath’s prediction, so it is best classified as right.