Available evidence is mixed and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) enforcement ramp‑up is still in an early, shifting phase, so it’s not yet possible to say where the bulk of new, IRA‑enabled audits will ultimately fall.

Evidence suggesting the prediction may be wrong (focus shifting to high‑income):

• Treasury’s 2022 directive explicitly ordered that additional IRS resources from the IRA not be used to increase the audit share of small businesses or households under $400,000, and instead be focused on “high‑end noncompliance” (high‑income individuals, large corporations, complex partnerships). (dailywire.com)
• The IRS’s strategic operating plans and public updates emphasize sharply higher audit rates for multimillion‑dollar earners, large corporations, and large partnerships, while pledging not to increase audit rates for individuals and small businesses under $400,000. (investing.com)
• A 2025 TIGTA‑based analysis of the FY 2024 examination plan found that planned audits for taxpayers with income over $400,000 were nearly 2.5× the 2019–2023 average, and that audits for taxpayers at or under $400,000 did not increase, indicating IRA resources were being steered toward higher‑income filers as intended. (accountingtoday.com)

Evidence suggesting the prediction may be right (at least in early practice):

• A Wall Street Journal summary of a TIGTA report noted that, as of “last summer” (early in the IRA rollout), about 63% of new audits were still of taxpayers earning under $200,000, and 80% were of those earning under $1 million, indicating that actual audits continued to fall mostly on non‑ultra‑wealthy filers despite the new funding. (wsj.com)
• CBO and related analyses projected that some portion of the extra revenue from IRA‑funded enforcement would indeed come from taxpayers earning under $400,000, even if characterized as only a “small fraction” of total new revenue, which leaves open how many audits (as opposed to dollars) will land on these groups. (dailywire.com)

Why this is still inconclusive overall:

• The IRA enforcement build‑out is long‑term (through roughly 2031). As of 2024–2025, the IRS has spent only about 10–15% of its IRA funding and is still ramping hiring; Congress has also cut and reprogrammed portions of that funding. (nysscpa.org) The oft‑cited “tens of thousands” of new personnel are only partially in place, so the full pattern of incremental audits attributable to those hires has not yet emerged.
• Most published data and watchdog reports either (a) describe overall audit patterns (heavily influenced by legacy practices and pre‑IRA staffing) or (b) describe plans and targets for high‑income audits, not a completed, multi‑year record of IRA‑driven audit outcomes broken out cleanly by income band.

Because (1) implementation of the IRA audit expansion is incomplete and evolving, and (2) the available statistics don’t isolate the long‑run, incremental audits created by the “tens of thousands of additional agents” Chamath was talking about, we can’t yet decisively say that the bulk of those new audits are landing on middle/upper‑middle taxpayers and small businesses rather than the ultra‑wealthy—or vice versa. Hence the prediction is best rated as inconclusive (too early to tell).