As of November 30, 2025, the United States still has no federal, economy‑wide carbon tax or carbon price. Analyses of U.S. climate policy note that the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) deliberately relied on subsidies and tax credits rather than a national carbon price, and that the U.S. remains one of the few G20 countries without a nationwide carbon pricing scheme. (hbs.edu)

The IRA did include a methane emissions fee on certain oil and gas facilities, but this is narrower than a general carbon tax and was subsequently overturned by the new Congress in 2025, further underscoring the political difficulty of explicit carbon pricing. (en.wikipedia.org) Meanwhile, explicit carbon‑tax bills such as the Energy Innovation and Carbon Dividend Act of 2023 (H.R. 5744) have been introduced in the House but have not advanced beyond committee and have not been enacted. (congress.gov)

These facts are directionally consistent with Chamath’s claim that the IRA “killed” the political prospects of a U.S. carbon tax so far, but his prediction is stronger: he says the idea will “never see the light of day,” i.e., that a federal carbon tax will not be implemented in the long run. Because that is an open‑ended, future‑looking claim, it cannot yet be definitively confirmed or falsified. The most we can say is that, by late 2025, it has not yet been disproven.

Given the indefinite time horizon and the fact that no federal carbon tax has yet been enacted, the correct assessment today is inconclusive (too early to tell) rather than clearly right or wrong.