Evidence since 2022 strongly supports Chamath’s claim that the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) became a template for other countries’ climate‑industrial policy.

1. European Union – explicit “European IRA” with subsidies and permitting reform

   • The EU launched a Green Deal Industrial Plan and the Net‑Zero Industry Act (NZIA), widely described as the bloc’s direct answer to the IRA and part of a clean‑energy “arms race” triggered by the U.S. law.(carbonbrief.org)
   • European industry groups and the Commission itself frame the Green Deal Industrial Plan as the European answer or mirror to the IRA, intended to nurture a domestic clean‑tech industrial base via large subsidies and relaxed state‑aid rules.(english.bdi.eu)
   • The NZIA specifically introduces faster permitting and one‑stop shops for strategic net‑zero projects, with legally mandated maximum approval timelines (e.g., 9–12 months), and “Net‑Zero Acceleration Valleys” to speed environmental assessments—directly matching Chamath’s emphasis on a subsidy‑ plus permitting‑based framework.(europarl.europa.eu)

2. Canada – tax‑credit‑driven “made‑in‑Canada” response

   • Canada’s 2023 budget created large, refundable investment tax credits for clean electricity, clean‑tech manufacturing, hydrogen, CCUS, etc., explicitly framed by the government as a “Made‑in‑Canada Plan” to keep the country competitive as the U.S. and others roll out clean‑economy subsidies.(canada.ca)
   • Canadian commentary and officials repeatedly describe these measures as a response to the U.S. IRA and its nearly US$400bn in climate‑ and energy‑related subsidies, urging a “made‑in‑Canada response” rather than ignoring the U.S. package.(ottawa.citynews.ca)

3. Broader pattern – multiple countries adopting similar subsidy‑centric frameworks

   • Analyses describe the IRA as having sparked a global “clean‑energy arms race”, with the EU’s Green Deal Industrial Plan, Canadian and UK green‑industry subsidies, and numerous other national packages framed as efforts to match or compete with IRA‑style incentives.(carbonbrief.org)
   • Commentators note that major economies (EU, Canada, Japan, South Korea, India, etc.) are rolling out subsidy‑heavy climate and industrial policies that “incorporate the similar kind of spirit of the IRA,” supporting Chamath’s idea that others would do “some version of the same thing,” even if not identical in design.(carbonbrief.org)

Given that: (a) the EU and Canada have explicitly structured and marketed new climate‑industrial frameworks as answers or mirrors to the IRA, and (b) a wider set of countries have adopted similar subsidy‑driven, often permitting‑reform‑linked schemes in the years following its passage, Chamath’s prediction that the IRA would become a blueprint and that others would adopt their own versions has largely played out as described.