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Last updated Nov 29, 2025
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Sacks @ 00:40:17Wrong
economy
The U.S. is in a shallow technical recession as of Q2 2022 but will return to positive real GDP growth in either Q3 2022 or Q4 2022, followed by a renewed recession in 2023 as the 2022 Federal Reserve rate hikes fully impact the broader economy (with the lagged effects becoming evident roughly 6–9 months after the hikes).
If I were to predict, I think what's going to happen now, I think look for a double dip. I wouldn't be surprised at all if in Q3 or Q4 we're back to positive GDP growth. But I don't think we're necessarily out of the woods because I think there's a pretty good chance that next year, these these rate hikes really kick in. It takes 6 to 9 months for them to ripple through the economy.View on YouTube
Explanation

Breaking the prediction into components:

  1. "Shallow technical recession" by Q2 2022 – This matches the data. BEA shows real U.S. GDP fell at an annualized –1.6% in Q1 2022 and –0.6% in Q2 2022, i.e., two consecutive negative quarters (a common “technical recession” rule of thumb). (bea.gov)

  2. Return to positive real GDP in Q3 or Q4 2022 – This also happened. Real GDP turned positive in Q3 2022 (+2.6% annual rate, advance estimate) and remained positive in Q4 2022 (+2.7% in the second estimate). (bea.gov)

  3. "Double-dip" recession in 2023 as rate hikes kick in (another downturn 6–9 months later) – This did not occur. BEA data show real GDP grew in every quarter of 2023: Q1 (~1.1% advance), Q2 (2.1% second/third estimate), Q3 (4.9% third estimate), and Q4 (about 3.2–3.4%), with full‑year 2023 real GDP up 2.5% from 2022. (bea.gov) The National Bureau of Economic Research’s official business‑cycle chronology (last updated March 14, 2023) lists the most recent recession as February–April 2020 and does not show any new recession starting in 2023. (nber.org)

Because the central, forward‑looking part of the prediction was a renewed recession in 2023 that never happened, the overall prediction is best classified as wrong, even though the short‑term call about a 2022 technical recession followed by a brief return to growth was accurate.