Last updated Nov 29, 2025
economy
The U.S. recession that began by mid‑2022 will likely have a temporary bounce in GDP in Q3 2022, followed by a return to recessionary conditions (a "double‑dip" recession).
Listen, listen, we're in a recession. It started. It might be a shallow recession. We don't know yet... It might turn out we might have a bounce in Q3. This might be more of a double dip. I suspect that's what it'll be.View on YouTube
Explanation

BEA data show that real U.S. GDP did rebound in Q3 2022 after two negative quarters: GDP fell at annualized rates of −1.6% in Q1 2022 and −0.6% in Q2 2022, then rose +2.6–2.9% in Q3 2022, matching the “temporary bounce in Q3” part of the prediction.(bea.gov)(apps.bea.gov)(apps.bea.gov)(apps-fd.bea.gov)

However, the key claim was that this would be a “double‑dip” recession—i.e., the economy would slip back into recessionary conditions after that bounce. Instead, GDP remained positive afterward: BEA estimates show real GDP growth of about +2.6% in Q4 2022 and continued positive growth throughout 2023 (roughly +2–5% annualized each quarter) and into 2024, with Q4 2024 still growing at about +2.3% annualized.(apps-fd.bea.gov)(apps.bea.gov)(apps.bea.gov)(barrons.com)

Most importantly, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee—the standard arbiter of U.S. recessions—still lists the last U.S. recession as ending in April 2020, with no new recession dated in 2022–2024; subsequent commentary through 2025 notes that the U.S. is not officially in recession, despite some slowdowns and a one‑quarter contraction in early 2025 that was followed by a strong rebound.(nber.org)(ft.com)(investopedia.com)

So while Sacks correctly anticipated the Q3 2022 GDP bounce, his broader forecast of a double‑dip recession starting in mid‑2022 and then returning after Q3 did not occur. Therefore, taken as stated in the normalized prediction, it is wrong.